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Formal Framework for Optimal Market Making: HJB Equations with Alpha Signals and Adverse Selection

Naoki Takata
January 13, 2026

Abstract

We present a formal mathematical framework for optimal market making strategies, encompassing three interconnected models: (1) the Market Making with Alpha Signals model incorporating predictive signals, (2) the Adverse Selection with Price Reading model, and (3) the classical Avellaneda-Stoikov model. For each model, we rigorously define the parameter spaces, derive the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations, and establish the optimal control formulations. We also present the ansatz for the value function and the optimal quote adjustment formulas.

Paper

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Blockchain Timestamp (Proof of Existence)

As a proof of existence for this paper, the Keccak-256 hash of the PDF has been recorded on the Ethereum blockchain.

Timestamp: January 13, 2026 (date recorded on the blockchain)

Formal Verification

The formal definitions and equations presented here have been verified through mechanized proof in the Lean theorem prover.

Contact

Naoki Takata
X: @naokitakata
Email: [ntakata [at] proton.me]

This is a preprint. Comments are welcome!